D'après l'institution de Bretton Woods, cette croissance sera soutenue par la demande intérieure et la reprise dans le secteur des hydrocarbures.
Selon un communiqué, le FMI a fait savoir que l'excédent du compte courant devrait atteindre 8,2% du PIB, et que pour ce qui est du solde courant, il resterait excédentaire en 2013 à 7,1% du PIB.
En 2012 comme en 2013, les réserves de change devraient rester très "confortables" et la dette extérieure "très limitée", ajoute la même source.
Idem pour le secteur bancaire qui est resté "solide" en 2012, et la position du Fonds de régulation des recettes (FRR), nette de la dette publique, a atteint 26% du PIB, explique le FMI.
Par ailleurs, le Fonds estime que l'inflation s'est accélérée en 2012 et devrait atteindre 8,4% durant cette année.
A propos de l'emploi, le taux de chômage continuerait à être élevé chez les jeunes et les femmes, à 21,5% et 17%, respectivement.
D'après le pronostic du Fonds, la maîtrise de l'inflation, la viabilité des finances publiques, et le renforcement de la croissance hors-hydrocarbures "constituent autant de défis importants pour l'Algérie à court et moyen termes".
Aussi, l'institution monétaire estime que la politique de gestion de liquidités entamée en 2012 devrait être maintenue et soutenue par un recours accru du Trésor au marché financier pour le financement des déficits publics.
Cette politique pourrait également être renforcée par un relèvement des taux d'intérêts, afin de ramener l'inflation dans une fourchette de 4 à 4,5%.
Le document mentionne que la viabilité à long terme des finances publiques algériennes est tributaire des ressources en hydrocarbures.
De ce fait, la politique budgétaire "prudente" envisagée pour 2013 permettra, selon le FMI, de restaurer les marges de manoeuvres, et devrait être poursuivie dans le moyen terme par la maîtrise de la dépense courante et le développement des recettes non-hydrocarbures.
Sur un autre registre, le Fonds recommande la nécessité de mettre en place une stratégie d'amélioration du climat des affaires, un allègement des contraintes pesant sur les investissements étrangers, une meilleure intégration au commerce international et des réformes de développement du secteur financier.
Interrogé sur la règle des 49/51 relative à l'investissement direct étranger (IDE) qui favorise les partenaires locaux, M. Zeidane a suggéré aux pouvoirs publics algériens de "limiter l'application de cette règle aux secteurs jugés stratégiques par l'Etat et d'ouvrir les autres activités aux IDE".
A propos du prêt de cinq milliards de dollars accordé récemment par l'Algérie à l'institution internationale, le responsable du Fonds a souligné qu'il s'agit d'une contribution à l'effort mondial d'améliorer la conjoncture économique internationale.
Pendant sa mission en Algérie, la délégation du FMI s'est entretenue avec des responsables algériens dans le cadre des consultations annuelles prévues par les statuts du FMI. Des consultations qui donneront lieu à un rapport des services du FMI qui sera discuté par le conseil d'administration du Fonds début 2013.
Le FMI prévoit pour l'Algérie, une croissance de 3,4% en 2013
Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) prévoit une croissance de 3,4% en Algérie en 2013, contre 2,5 % pour l'année en cours, a indiqué dimanche à Alger le responsable de l'institution, Zeine Zeidane, lors d'une conférence de presse organisée à l'issue d'une mission de deux semaines qui l'a conduit en Algérie.
URL de rétrolien : http://algerlablanche.com/archives/index.php?trackback/5125
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